Mark StysMar 172 minThe Stock Market and the Long RunIn the long run, the stock market is about where it should be. At the peak of the previous bull market in 2007, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high just bel...
Mark StysMar 61 minMore great BC economic numbers that don't matter - for now The employment report for February came in far stronger than expected and with the upward revisions January 'shocked' many. We weren't surprised, we've disc...
Mark StysFeb 242 minDon't Panic!Don't panic over Coronavirus and the drop in the stock market. As of Friday's close, the S&P 500 was up 3.61% for the year. We've known about the Coronavir...
Mark StysFeb 192 minDoes a Pop in PPI Signal Potential Inflation? The PPI data released today came in much higher than expected on both a month over month (MoM) and year over year (YoY) basis. While one report outlier gene...
Mark StysFeb 72 minHere comes the Boom - Part 2The Employment Report for Jan 2020 further convinces us that a secondary boom in the US economy has begun. Virtually every economic measure in the last mont...
Mark StysFeb 32 minManufacturing survey numbers 'Surpise' to the upside, but they shouldn'tBoth the Markit and the ISM Manufacturing Survey came in higher than expected in the January 2020 report. That is viewed as a 'surprise', but it shouldn't b...
Mark StysJan 273 minIs the Coronavirus a GDP killer? Probably not.As global stock markets selloff in the face of uncertainty of a possible Coronavirus pandemic, some perspective is needed. Uncertainty is increased because ...
Mark StysJan 73 min2020 Economic OutlookOur expectations for 2020 economic activity are not markedly changed from 2019. In general, we expect growth of about 2.5% and interest rates to remain subdu...
Mark StysDec 19, 20192 minHousing Boomlet Coming?Since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009 virtually every sector of the US economy has recovered and exceeded prior levels in economic activity. Ever...
Mark StysDec 16, 20192 minRetail Sales should drive a Wholesale Inventory Buildup, and Manufacturing, and Trucking, and..."You can't sell from an empty wagon," said my boss Terry Doyle as we were discussing our holdings of US Agency bonds on the trading desk. He was right, at t...
Mark StysNov 19, 20192 minStock Market Returns During Presidential Election YearsIt's always fun to look at market returns as subsets of recurring events and see if we can gauge any significance in expected future returns. since we're now...
Mark StysNov 12, 20192 minIs Economic Activity about to Accelerate?There are numerous indicators we track to gauge economic and business cycle strength which we believe will help to determine the direction of investment mark...
Mark StysNov 5, 20192 minCorporate Debt - Currently Not An IssueUS Government Debt is increasing at a pace greater than $1T annually as the tax cuts have decreased tax receipts at a greater pace than new taxes raised thro...
Mark StysNov 1, 20192 minAnother Solid Jobs ReportThe Employment Situation Report (also called the Non-Farm Payroll Report) gives a monthly snapshot of the employment (and unemployment ) situation in the US...
Mark StysOct 30, 20192 minQ3 GDP Continues Moderate GrowthEconomic activity in the U.S. grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in Q3, down very slightly from 2% in Q2, but better than economists' expectations of 1.6%. T...
Mark StysOct 24, 20192 minHow do we spend our money?And what does it mean? We've often discussed household debt as an indicator of economic growth. The more debt a household has, the less likely it is to take...
Mark StysOct 2, 20192 minBusiness Credit Shows Steady GrowthThere are many ways to measure economic strength and weakness. One we look at quarterly is the level of credit applied for, accepted, rejected, and defaulte...
Mark StysSep 13, 20191 minIncome, Sales, Inventories, and GDPIncome drives sales, sales drives inventories, and all drive GDP. There has been some concern that the slowdown in wholesale inventories gains were pointing ...
Mark StysSep 9, 20193 minEmployment Data Shows No Sign of RecessionThere are many different data sets from which to view and analyze the employment picture in the US. The Non-Farm Payroll report (NFP) is one that generally ...
Mark StysSep 5, 20192 minVisualizing the Federal Reserves Balance Sheet In 2008 the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) began a program of Quantitative Easing in conjunction with deep cuts in the Federal Reserve Funds Rate (sometimes ...
