top of page
Search


Manufacturing survey numbers 'Surpise' to the upside, but they shouldn't
Both the Markit and the ISM Manufacturing Survey came in higher than expected in the January 2020 report. That is viewed as a...
Mark Stys
Feb 3, 20202 min read


Is the Coronavirus a GDP killer? Probably not.
As global stock markets selloff in the face of uncertainty of a possible Coronavirus pandemic, some perspective is needed. Uncertainty...
Mark Stys
Jan 27, 20203 min read


2020 Economic Outlook
Our expectations for 2020 economic activity are not markedly changed from 2019. In general, we expect growth of about 2.5% and interest...
Mark Stys
Jan 7, 20203 min read


Housing Boomlet Coming?
Since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009 virtually every sector of the US economy has recovered and exceeded prior levels in...
Mark Stys
Dec 19, 20192 min read


Retail Sales should drive a Wholesale Inventory Buildup, and Manufacturing, and Trucking, and...
"You can't sell from an empty wagon," said my boss Terry Doyle as we were discussing our holdings of US Agency bonds on the trading desk....
Mark Stys
Dec 16, 20192 min read
Stock Market Returns During Presidential Election Years
It's always fun to look at market returns as subsets of recurring events and see if we can gauge any significance in expected future...
Mark Stys
Nov 19, 20192 min read


Is Economic Activity about to Accelerate?
There are numerous indicators we track to gauge economic and business cycle strength which we believe will help to determine the...
Mark Stys
Nov 12, 20192 min read


Corporate Debt - Currently Not An Issue
US Government Debt is increasing at a pace greater than $1T annually as the tax cuts have decreased tax receipts at a greater pace than...
Mark Stys
Nov 5, 20192 min read


Another Solid Jobs Report
The Employment Situation Report (also called the Non-Farm Payroll Report) gives a monthly snapshot of the employment (and unemployment )...
Mark Stys
Nov 1, 20192 min read


Q3 GDP Continues Moderate Growth
Economic activity in the U.S. grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in Q3, down very slightly from 2% in Q2, but better than economists'...
Mark Stys
Oct 30, 20192 min read


How do we spend our money?
And what does it mean? We've often discussed household debt as an indicator of economic growth. The more debt a household has, the less...
Mark Stys
Oct 24, 20192 min read


Business Credit Shows Steady Growth
There are many ways to measure economic strength and weakness. One we look at quarterly is the level of credit applied for, accepted,...
Mark Stys
Oct 2, 20192 min read


Income, Sales, Inventories, and GDP
Income drives sales, sales drives inventories, and all drive GDP. There has been some concern that the slowdown in wholesale inventories...
Mark Stys
Sep 13, 20191 min read


Employment Data Shows No Sign of Recession
There are many different data sets from which to view and analyze the employment picture in the US. The Non-Farm Payroll report (NFP) is...
Mark Stys
Sep 9, 20193 min read


Visualizing the Federal Reserves Balance Sheet
In 2008 the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) began a program of Quantitative Easing in conjunction with deep cuts in the Federal Reserve...
Mark Stys
Sep 5, 20192 min read


US Household Debt as % of Disposable Income is currently 'Unrecessionary'?
US Consumer spending is the biggest single spending factor accounting for about 65% of total US GDP while business and government roughly...
Mark Stys
Aug 30, 20193 min read


The 'Tariff War' and US Total Trade
Given the hyperventilating over trade tariffs and the expected increase in inflation that is yet to come, how 'vast' has been the actual...
Mark Stys
Aug 28, 20192 min read


Is the Trade War with China coming to an end?
Fox News: "China announces it seeks 'calm' end to trade war, as markets tank and currency hits 11-year flatline"...
Mark Stys
Aug 26, 20192 min read


Supply and Demand. Or, why US Stocks are a good bet for the 'long haul'.
Since the end of the 'Great Recession' in 2009, US stock markets have outperformed those of the rest of the developed world and the...
Mark Stys
Aug 21, 20191 min read
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and US Debt Issuance
The current Fed Funds Target Rate is currently 2.25% (actually it’s a range from 2.00-2.25% but the high end of the range rate is always...
Mark Stys
Aug 20, 20192 min read
bottom of page
